Picks by our Golf Betting Expert
Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, where we provide you with expert picks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, taking place in Pebble Beach, California. Our expert, Brady Kannon, is known for his in-depth knowledge of the game and his successful track record in golf betting. Let’s dive into his top 6 picks for this week’s tournament.
The Beauty of Coastal Golf
This week, we continue the PGA Tour’s West Coast Swing, transitioning from Torrey Pines in Southern California to the iconic Pebble Beach in Northern California. The breathtaking views of the coastline serve as the backdrop for this tournament. Last week, we came close to a winning pick with Nicolai Hojgaard, who finished as the runner-up, making it the fourth consecutive triple-digit long shot to cash in this season.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Format
The 2024 edition of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is a Signature Event, featuring a limited field of 80 of the best players in the world. Unlike previous years, Monterey Peninsula Country Club will not be part of the rotation of golf courses this year. The tournament will be played on both Pebble Beach Golf Links and Spyglass Hill, with the latter being the narrower course with tree-lined fairways. Both courses present a challenge with their Poa Annua greens, known for their smaller size.
Key Factors for Success
In recent years, we’ve seen certain factors emerge as key predictors of success at this tournament. Strokes Gained: Putting and Strokes Gained: Approach have become crucial metrics in determining the players’ performance. While Driving Accuracy and Driving Distance still matter, hitting the greens in regulation and having a strong scrambling game will be equally important. The par 4s, measuring between 350-450 yards, will test the players’ skills. To identify correlated courses, we took into account TPC Southwind, St. George’s Golf & Country Club in Canada, Port Royal in Bermuda, Sea Island, TPC Craig Ranch, and Colonial Country Club.
Sam Burns: A Contender to Watch
Sam Burns enters this tournament on a high note, with a strong performance at the American Express. Although he narrowly missed out on the victory, his consistent showing suggests he’s in good form. Notably, Burns excels in rainy conditions, making him stand out in this field. He ranks highly in Scrambling, Par 4 performance (350-400 yards), and SG: Putting (Poa Annua). Moreover, his success on correlated courses, such as Colonial and TPC Craig Ranch, further boosts his credentials.
An Byeong-hun: Familiarity with Poa Annua
An Byeong-hun, a graduate of Cal Berkeley in Northern California, possesses familiarity with the Poa Annua putting surface. His recent performances, including a fourth-place finish at The Sentry and a playoff loss at the Sony Open, indicate that he is in contention for a strong showing. His strengths lie in Par 4 performance (400-450 yards) and hole proximity from 125-150 yards. An also ranks well in SG: Total on courses under 7,200 yards.
Beau Hossler: Building Momentum
Beau Hossler ended the 2023 season on a high note and has carried that momentum into 2024. His sixth-place finish at the Farmers Insurance Open demonstrates his consistent play. When analyzing the key statistics, Hossler excels in SG: Putting, approach shots, scrambling, and Greens in Regulation. Notably, his past performances at Pebble Beach include both an 11th and a third-place finish.
Denny McCarthy: Long Shot Worth Considering
Denny McCarthy, a triple-digit long shot, presents an excellent opportunity for bettors looking for great value. McCarthy’s track record at the Monterey Peninsula is impressive, finishing fourth and twelfth in his last two starts at this tournament. His prowess in SG: Putting (Poa Annua) makes him a strong contender. Over the last 24 rounds, McCarthy ranks first in this field in SG: Putting and third in Scrambling.
Alexander Noren: A Short Game Specialist
Alexander Noren possesses remarkable skills in the short game, making him a notable player to watch in this tournament. His rankings in Scrambling (fifth), Greens in Regulation (ninth), Good Drives Gained (eighth), and Par 4 performance (400-450 yards) demonstrate his versatility. Noren’s previous success on the Poa Annua greens, including a runner-up finish at Torrey Pines in 2018, adds to his strong profile. His performances at correlated courses like Sea Island, TPC Craig Ranch, and Port Royal further enhance his potential.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout: A Player to Keep an Eye On
Our final pick, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, is yet another player with a stellar short game. Bezuidenhout’s recent runner-up finish at the American Express highlights his ability to contend. His strong performance in SG: Approach, SG: Putting, Greens in Regulation, and Scrambling positions him well in this field. Additionally, his previous solid performance at Pebble Beach, finishing 14th in 2022, underscores his potential.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs):
What are the key factors for success at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am?
The key factors for success at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am include Strokes Gained: Putting, Strokes Gained: Approach, hitting greens in regulation, and having a strong scrambling game. Scoring well on the par 4s, especially those measuring between 350-450 yards, is also crucial.
Which players have a strong track record at Pebble Beach?
Sam Burns, Beau Hossler, Denny McCarthy, Alexander Noren, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout have all demonstrated their abilities at Pebble Beach in previous years. Their past finishes and skill sets make them worth considering for this tournament.
Are there any correlated courses that can provide insights into player performance at Pebble Beach?
Yes, correlated courses such as TPC Southwind, St. George’s Golf & Country Club, Port Royal, Sea Island, TPC Craig Ranch, and Colonial Country Club can offer insights into player performance at Pebble Beach. Looking at how players have performed at these courses can provide valuable information when making picks.
Who is the long shot with the most potential in this tournament?
Denny McCarthy, a triple-digit long shot, has the potential to surprise bettors with his strong prowess in SG: Putting (Poa Annua) and Scrambling. With his successful track record at Monterey Peninsula and other related courses, McCarthy presents an enticing opportunity.
Can Sam Burns secure a win after his near-miss at the American Express?
Sam Burns has shown great potential with his recent performances and strengths on correlated courses. While nothing is guaranteed in golf, Burns has the skills and form to be a strong contender for victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
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Note: This article is based on the analysis and picks provided by our expert, Brady Kannon. For a chance to win amazing prizes, make your own picks on the Chirp app.
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