Forging a Path to Victory: Top Sleeper Picks for the 2024 PGA Championship at Valhalla

The average height of the PGA Championship winner? Five-foot-nine.

The most successful astrological sign? Capricorn.

Did the champion wear a baseball hat? About half did.

This week, as the year’s second major tees off at Valhalla, going about trying to pick a sleeper can be laborious, simply because we are skipping past the obvious contenders and scrolling down to the underdogs, whose odds number tend to match their warts tally. Digging is demanded in this exercise — and the good folks at sportshandle.com have, should you believe in their data.

Their complete research can be found here, where you’ll find the following on previous champions — which may help you unearth a gem:

  • Average age
  • Country of birth
  • State of birth, should the winner have been born in the U.S.
  • Average height, as noted above
  • Average weight
  • The most common first-name initial
  • The most common birth month
  • The most common star sign, as noted above
  • Whether they attended college
  • Whether they wore a short-sleeved golf polo shirt on the final day
  • The color of their shirt on the final day
  • The most common clothing sponsor
  • Whether they wore a baseball hat on the final day

Good stuff. With that, let’s continue to mine. Below, we have made some long-shot selections that may assist you with your own weekly picks, whether those are for a low-stakes office fantasy league or (legal!) big-bucks bets with a sportsbook. It’s an enjoyable endeavor for us. Deploy it as you wish.

Sleeper Pick: Jake Knapp, +15,000

Jake absolutely smashes the golf ball, and that will be a huge advantage at Valhalla. He had a good showing a couple of weeks ago at the Byron Nelson, and he’s already won this year, so we’re willing to bet that he could have a sleeper’s chance in Louisville.

Sleeper Pick: Sam Burns, +6,600

His early season form has disappeared the past few events, but Burns has the type of game that can thrive at Valhalla. If he can be above average with his mid-irons and wedges, he will put himself into the mix on the weekend.

Sleeper Pick: Akshay Bhatia, +10,000

He’s been consistently good and for one week was notably great. He’s also made it clear: He’s hunting majors. We wouldn’t be shocked to see him in the mix.

Sleeper Pick: Jason Day, +5,500

With a handful of top-10 finishes under his belt this year, we think it’s about time Day hoists up that trophy, rocking those sweet Malbon pants.

Sleeper Pick: Cameron Young, +4,000

We’re still convinced that the 27-year-old Young is the best young golfer in the game, and his previous finishes in majors give us confidence that he’ll get one of his own soon. With a T9 at this Masters, Young has now placed within the top 10 in five majors in his career, along with two T3 finishes. Now it’s time to finish the job.

Sleeper Pick: Justin Thomas, +4,000

You’re welcome to disagree that these 40-1 odds make Thomas a long-shot pick, but he’s certainly worth a mention. Thomas missed last year’s playoffs and hasn’t won an event since the 2022 PGA Championship, but what better place to get his career back on track than in his hometown of Louisville? Justin just got his very own hometown hero award this week, so here’s to hoping he can turn that into positive momentum on the golf course.

Sleeper Pick: Sahith Theegala, +5,500

Theegala is the highest-ranked player in the FedEx Cup standings this season without a victory this year. He’s already proven he can win on Tour with his win in Napa last fall. We would love to see Team Theegala take over Louisville as the 26-year-old takes his next step with his first major title.

Sleeper Pick: Dean Burmester, +10,000

Burmester is having a sneaky good season this year playing on the LIV circuit with three top 10s, including a win in Miami, as he sits third in the season-long standings. It remains to be seen if his game will hold up under major pressure, but it’s impossible to argue with his form.

Sleeper Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard, +12,500

We love these odds. He’ll contend.

Sleeper Pick: Sahith Theegala, +6,600

We’d be surprised if Scheffler’s newborn baby doesn’t nab at least a T25, but since we don’t see those odds on the board, we’ll go with another youngster with a ton of natural talent who has acquitted himself well in a few majors already. Theegala is the real deal. Just a matter of time before he wins a biggie. He’s a tempting play at this number.

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